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In a recent interview on the Thinking Crypto channel, Mark Yusko, the founder and CEO of Morgan Creek Capital, shared his optimistic forecast for Bitcoin (BTC), predicting a substantial rally for the cryptocurrency in the near future. Yusko believes that Bitcoin could reach or even surpass a value of $100,000 by the end of 2024, exceeding its previous all-time high:
“I think we hit six figures. I do these 10 surprises every year and one of mine was that we hit six figures. We definitely take out the all-time high. That could happen in days.”
Yusko attributes the anticipated rise in Bitcoin’s price to a combination of factors related to supply and demand dynamics in the market. He points out that the introduction of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S. is playing a crucial role. These ETFs are acquiring more Bitcoin than is being mined each day, effectively reducing the available supply. Yusko emphasizes that this situation is creating a demand shock in the market. Additionally, he highlights the upcoming Bitcoin halving event in April 2024, which will further reduce the daily Bitcoin mining output from 900 to 450. The combination of increased demand due to ETFs and the decreased supply post-halving, according to Yusko, will inevitably lead to a significant increase in Bitcoin’s price.
Furthermore, Yusko predicts that some central banks will eventually include Bitcoin in their reserve holdings, drawing a parallel with how central banks adopted the Chinese Renminbi. He likens Bitcoin to digital gold, suggesting that it will become a base layer of money for forward-thinking central banks. Yusko’s comparison of Bitcoin to gold underscores his belief in Bitcoin’s fundamental value and potential as a store of value, similar to traditional precious metals.
Earlier this month, in a conversation with Cointelegraph, Yusko offered a nuanced view on the recently approved US spot Bitcoin ETFs and their impact on the cryptocurrency market. He acknowledged that while these ETFs are crucial for Bitcoin’s broader acceptance, they come with challenges, especially for the average investor who may not fully grasp Bitcoin’s technological nuances or the concept of triple-entry accounting. Yusko sees these ETFs as a vital transitional tool to facilitate wider Bitcoin adoption, noting that platforms like COINBASE and Kraken play a key role in simplifying the investment process for less tech-savvy individuals.
Discussing the potential effects of the spot Bitcoin ETFs on the asset’s volatility, Yusko recognized that although market maturity might lead to decreased volatility, this is a natural evolution for Bitcoin as it transitions from an experimental project to a more established asset class. He wore a shirt with the slogan “Embrace Volatility,” symbolizing his belief that volatility is an essential and beneficial characteristic of Bitcoin’s growth trajectory.
Yusko reiterated his earlier predictions about Bitcoin’s fair value and its future price movements. He estimated Bitcoin’s current fair value to be in the low $50,000s, expecting it to reach this level by the next halving. Post-halving, he anticipates an upward adjustment in fair value to maintain miner profitability, potentially leading to a six-figure price in 2024. However, Yusko predicts less dramatic price swings compared to past cycles, attributing this to reduced market liquidity and leverage.
Looking ahead, Yusko expressed caution about the long-term implications of the spot Bitcoin ETFs and the prospects of a spot Ethereum ETF being approved by the SEC. He suggested that the path to a spot Ethereum ETF might be more complex due to the SEC’s cautious approach and the evolving regulatory landscape surrounding Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. Yusko estimated the likelihood of a spot Ethereum ETF approval to be below 50%, emphasizing the need for asset management firms to actively work towards making it a reality.
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