The Shanghai Upgrade Is Unlikely to Spark Massive ETH Selling Pressure — Here’s Why

The Shanghai Upgrade Is Unlikely to Spark Massive ETH Selling Pressure — Here’s Why
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The crypto community continued to be concerned about the probability of ethereum bulk dumping validators of their aether in the run-up to the Shanghai upgrade.

The Shanghai upgrade, expected to roll out later this month or early April, will signify Ethereum’s transition to a full-fledged proof-of-stake system. It will also allow validators to remove their milestone ether and rewards from placing their ether on the tag chain.

To date, Ethereum's intelligent PoS contract has attracted approximately 530,600 validators who have invested more than 17.4 million Ether since its inception in 2020, according to Etherscan data. This pegged ether total represents about 13% of the total supply of eth and cannot be removed until the upgraded Shanghai fork takes place.

The experts have therefore closely monitored whether investors will discard or retain this massive reserve once it is released, because this could be a decisive time for the price of ether.

Collapse of ether Unlikely Post-Shanghai, Cryptoquant.

According to analysis company Cryptoquant, it is unlikely that the next upgrade will trigger a sales pressure for the EPF. In a March 2nd post, the company noted that most participants may not be willing to sell as their assets are already at a loss.

“There would be low selling pressure for ETH from staking withdrawals after the Shanghai upgrade,” the firm wrote. To support its claim, the firm noted that “the majority of the ETH staked (60% or 10.3 million) is currently at a loss and that the average depositor of the largest staking pools is also currently at a loss.” 

According to the company, the cost-effective EPF was introduced less than a year ago and has not been involved in any significant lucrative activities in the past. “Typically, selling pressure arises when participants have extreme profits, which is not the case for staked ETH currently,” the firm added.

Additionally, the discouragement to sell can also be inferred from the liquid staking protocol Lido Finance which currently holds almost 30% of all staked ether at an average loss of nearly $1000.

Lido offers a liquid stapling solution for Ether, emitting Milestone Ether (stETH) when users drop Ether. This provides users with milestone rewards for every day the chips are held in their portfolios. Last week, the protocol was forced to introduce a "milestone rate limit" after having recorded its greatest daily contribution of participation of more than 150.000 eth, further demonstrating that the holders of ether do not want to sell. 

From the chain's point of view, ether prices will also appear to be less likely to fall sharply, given the ongoing decline in stock market supply. Recent data from glassnode show that the total percentage of stock market entries has declined by 11% compared to about 30% last September. In theory, this may reduce marketing pressure.

At the time of the press, the ETH was trading at $1,644, down 0.70% in the last 24 hours, CoinMarketCap reported.